For the past three years, leaders in the Food & Drink sector have been consumed by inflation. 

Energy inflation. Labour inflation. Packaging inflation. 

But while boards were focused on costs, another risk was quietly exposing a more fundamental vulnerability across the sector: resilience. 

An early warning from the cocoa market 

The cocoa crisis offers a stark illustration.  

In 2023-2024, El Niño contributed to hotter and drier weather patterns across key cocoa-producing regions in West Africa. The consequences were dramatic. A commodity that had traded at approximately £2-3,000 per tonne for the previous two decades, surged to more than £10,000 per tonne at its peak in April 2024. Cocoa prices more than quadrupled within a 12-month period. 

The pressure soon reached manufacturers, retailers and consumers. Many chocolate manufacturers were forced to implement significant price increases, “shrinkflation” accelerated across confectionary and products were reformulated. Even biscuit cupboard staples such as the McVitie’s Penguin and Club Bar began using chocolate flavoured alternatives instead of cocoa to manage their costs.  

While the price of cocoa has since started falling again, it has left a lasting mark on the sector. What began as a climate-related challenge, quickly became a commercial, operational and investor concern. 

If cocoa can move from £2,000 to £10,000 per tonne, which ingredient is next? 

This is not just a cocoa story 

It would be easy to dismiss the cocoa crisis as a category-specific event. That would be a mistake. 

Cocoa is simply one example of a wider pattern emerging across global food supply chains. 

Climate volatility is increasing. Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt trade routes. Water scarcity is affecting agricultural regions. Biodiversity loss is creating new pressures on yields.  

Many food and drink businesses have spent decades optimising supply chains for cost efficiency. That approach worked well when the operating environment was relatively stable. But that’s no longer the case. 

Resilience is becoming a competitive advantage 

Historically, resilience was often viewed as a cost. Additional suppliers created complexity. Buffer stock consumed working capital. Nearshoring increased input costs. Scenario planning was often difficult to justify against more immediate commercial priorities. 

That mindset is beginning to change – and not before time. 

When disruption occurs, resilient businesses maintain availability while competitor’s struggle. They protect customer relationships. They preserve market share. They recover more quickly and reassure stakeholders that they can navigate uncertainty. 

In this environment, resilience becomes a growth strategy, not simply a risk management exercise. 

What boards should be asking now 

If resilience is becoming a source of competitive advantage, leadership teams need a clearer view of where the business is most exposed. The priority is not to predict the next commodity shock with certainty. It is to understand which ingredients, suppliers and markets could create the greatest pressure if conditions change quickly. 

That starts with asking the right questions: 

A Boardroom “Resilience Checklist” 

• Which commodities would have the greatest impact on your business if prices doubled? 
• How many of your critical ingredients depend on a single country or region? 
• Are you working with strategic partners, or do you have transactional relationships? 
• How exposed are you to climate-related disruption? 
• Are you investing enough in resilience before the next shock arrives? 

The wider lesson for leaders in food and drink 

The cocoa crisis should not be viewed as a commodity story. It should be viewed as a warning because the next major disruption may not come from cocoa. It may come from coffee, dairy, grains, edible oils or another ingredient entirely. 

The specific commodity is almost irrelevant. The underlying lesson remains the same.  

The boardrooms that emerge strongest from the next decade of disruption will not necessarily be those that negotiated the lowest ingredient cost this quarter. They will be those that invested early in supplier relationships, diversified sourcing and treated resilience as a strategic priority. 

Cocoa has simply provided an early warning. 

The real question is whether leaders will act on it before the next commodity crisis arrives. 

If you would like to discuss how your business is managing commodity exposure, supplier risk or wider resilience planning, please get in touch with our Food & Drink team.