Scotland has cut its greenhouse gas emissions by over 60% since 1990 — a remarkable milestone that signals real progress toward net zero. But this success also raises a pressing question: if it took 35 years to achieve the first 60%, how can we deliver the remaining 40% in just 20 years to meet ambitious Government targets?

Many of the early gains came from relatively straightforward changes such as the UK-wide phaseout of coal and fast adoption of renewable energy technologies. The road ahead is far more demanding. It will require fundamental shifts in how homes are heated, how people and goods are transported, how land is managed and how industry is decarbonised through carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCSU) and green hydrogen.

Yet current indicators suggest progress is stalling. Heat pump installation is running at less than 10% of the 2030 target. Transport emissions remain high, despite rising electric vehicle uptake.  Infrastructure constraints - ranging from limited grid capacity to insufficient charging access - continue to hinder progress, while emissions from the agricultural and industrial sectors have remained largely unchanged.

The fundamental roadblock isn’t technology or capital – it’s political instability.  The Scottish Government’s U-turn of its 2030 emissions target wasn’t just a broken promise, it was a signal flare to investors that the political will is unreliable. Private capital is essential to scaling solutions like heat pump manufacturing, renewable hydrogen projects, grid modernisation, and CCSU. But businesses cannot commit billions amid shifting policy goalposts, funding uncertainty, and political voids. Ongoing political turbulence risks freezing the very investment we urgently need.

Recent findings from the 41st Energy Transition Survey, published by Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce in association with Johnston Carmichael and D2Zero, underline the scale of this challenge. The report highlights growing concern across the energy sector that the UK – and Scotland in particular – is losing the very skills, supply chains, and investor confidence needed to deliver its net zero ambitions.

Based on responses from more than 100 firms active in the UK Continental Shelf, the survey paints a troubling picture: two-thirds of companies expect to grow their overseas workforce over the next five years, and nearly half already report staff leaving the UK for work elsewhere. Companies cite a combination of weak domestic confidence, policy uncertainty, and a lack of viable project pipelines as key reasons.

Perhaps most notably, 90% of respondents believe the absence of a clear Scottish Government energy strategy is damaging investor confidence. This doesn’t reflect a lack of ambition from policymakers, but it does highlight the impact of perceived instability and policy gaps at a time when certainty is essential. Only with credible, long-term stability can the private sector deliver the necessary pace.  

With a clear national infrastructure framework, businesses can rapidly scale proven solutions – retrofitting gas heated homes, deploying renewables, rolling out EV fleets, transitioning oil and gas – knowing the market won’t shift beneath them. They can confidently channel investment into innovation for hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry and aviation, backed by firm government procurement commitments.

Achieving a further 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in just over two decades will require a threefold change in pace. More than ambition is required; it will require a deep and lasting commitment to implementation, which is why it is welcome to see the Scottish Government’s proposed Carbon Budgets — announced today (19 June) — which set statutory five-year limits on greenhouse gas emissions from 2026 to 2045. These budgets offer a clearer framework for progress and accountability, and their scrutiny by Parliament later this year will be a key moment for Scotland’s climate trajectory.

The private sector is ready, but it cannot act in isolation. A clear and coordinated actionable national plan, consistently executed across political cycles, is essential.

Scotland’s climate legacy won’t be defined by the targets that were set, but by the stability forged to reach them. The window for credible action is closing fast. Our leaders must choose: deliver enduring stability or preside over the collapse of our net-zero ambition.